Methodology
How the model's picks are made and graded
Lines
Lines are the points, rebounds and assists props posted for the day's games, collected on the morning of game day and refreshed until tip-off.
Projections
Two models (V1 and V2) project every player's points, rebounds and assists from his recent and season form, minutes, the opponent's defense against his position, and context such as home or away. For each player and stat, one of the two is chosen as the official projection, based on which has been more accurate for that kind of player.
Picks and confidence
The pick is Over when the official projection is above the line, Under when it is below. The edge is the gap between projection and line, and confidence comes from that gap relative to the size of the line:
| Confidence | Edge relative to the line | Record, 2024-25 and 2025-26 | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong | 35% or more | 2411–1910 | 55.8% |
| Solid | 20% to 35% | 3677–3232 | 53.2% |
| Lean | under 20% | 15040–14365 | 51.1% |
These numbers are computed live from the site's own data, the same way as the record page. At standard −110 prices a bet needs to win 52.4% of the time to break even, so the tiers matter: the bigger the edge, the more often the pick has been right.
Grading
- Every pick is graded against the official box score for that game.
- A result exactly on the line is a push and does not count as a win or a loss.
- If the player does not play, the pick is void.
- Units assume one unit risked per pick at −110 (win +0.91 units, loss −1 unit).
The public record
The record page counts every pick from 20 Oct 2026 on. Nothing is removed or edited after the fact. Every past slate is also open on the props board, where each line shows the pick and how it finished.
Hit rates
Hit rates on the board count regular season and playoff games only, never the game being played, and exclude games where the player did not play. “Season” is the current season; “H2H” is the last ten games against the same opponent.