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Do the research, not the guessing

Plain guides to player props: how lines and odds work, what the numbers really say, and how to manage your money. No tips, no hype.

The basics

01 What player props are, and how they work A player prop is a bet on one player's numbers in one game. How the lines are set, what over and under mean, and what decides them. 2 min read 02 Reading a line: odds, the margin and implied probability Decimal and American odds, how to turn a price into a probability, and why you need to win more than 52% of bets at -110 to break even. 2 min read 03 How to use the model's projections and tiers What the projection and the edge mean, what the A, B and C tiers are, and how to use the model as a second opinion rather than an oracle. 2 min read

Doing the research

04 Hit rates and sample size: what 7 out of 10 really means Why a player who went over 7 of his last 10 games is not a 70% bet, how luck hides in small samples, and how to read hit rates properly. 2 min read 05 Minutes first: why playing time drives every prop A player can't score from the bench. How projected minutes, blowouts, back-to-backs and injuries change every line. 2 min read 06 Defense vs position, and when it matters Why "this team allows the most points to point guards" is a starting point, not an answer, and what to check behind the ranking. 2 min read 07 Injury news and usage: who benefits when a star sits When a starter is ruled out, his shots, minutes and touches go somewhere. How to find out where, and how fast lines react. 2 min read

Prices, staking and parlays

08 Line shopping: the easiest edge there is Bookmakers don't agree. Why half a point or a few cents of price are worth more than any tip, and how to use it. 2 min read 09 Bankroll management: units, staking and staying in the game How much to stake on each bet, why flat units beat chasing, what the Kelly criterion says, and how to track it all. 2 min read 10 Parlays and correlation Why parlays pay so well and win so rarely, how the margin multiplies, and when legs that move together make a parlay worth it. 2 min read 11 Closing line value: the best sign you're beating the market What closing line value (CLV) is, why it predicts long-term results better than your win rate, and how NBA House measures it. 2 min read

Put it to work

Tonight's props come with hit rates, minutes, matchups and every bookmaker's line. 18+ · Bet responsibly.

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