Minutes first: why playing time drives every prop

If you take one habit from these guides, make it this: check the minutes before anything else. Points, rebounds and assists all grow with playing time. A player who usually scores 24 in 35 minutes is a very different bet in 28.

Per-minute thinking

Divide a player's numbers by his minutes and most of the noise goes away. A guard averaging 0.7 points a minute projects to about 24 points in 34 minutes, and about 20 in 28. Same player, same form, a four-point swing from playing time alone.

What cuts minutes

• Blowouts. When a game is decided, starters sit the fourth quarter. A big point spread (10 or more) raises the risk, and it hurts overs most.
• Back-to-backs. Teams rest players, and tired legs play fewer minutes.
• Foul trouble. Bigs who foul often lose minutes in a way no average shows.
• Minutes limits. Players returning from injury often play on a limit for a few games.
• Rotation changes. A new coach decision or a trade can move a player in or out of the rotation overnight.

What adds minutes

• Injuries to teammates. When a starter sits, his minutes go somewhere. Usually to the next player at his position, sometimes spread across the bench.
• Close games and overtime. Starters play more in tight games; overtime adds five minutes for everyone on the floor.
• Short benches. When several players are out, the healthy ones carry more.

How to use it on NBA House

The projected minutes page shows every player's expected minutes tonight, with who is out and why the projection moved. The situation flags on each prop warn about back-to-backs, long trips and blowout risk.

Before you bet a prop, check that tonight's minutes look like the minutes behind his numbers. If they don't, his averages don't apply.