Injury news and usage: who benefits when a star sits

When a star sits, his shots, touches and minutes don't disappear. They go to his teammates. Finding out who gets them is one of the best edges in props, because lines don't always move enough, or fast enough.

Where the usage goes

• Minutes usually go to the next player at the same position: the backup point guard when the starter sits.
• Shots spread more widely, but the second scorer usually takes the biggest share.
• Assists move to whoever handles the ball next. When a playmaking guard sits, a forward who can pass may run the offence.
• Rebounds shift when a big man is out: the other bigs, and sometimes a forward, get more chances.

Use real games, not guesses

The best evidence is the games the team has already played without him. NBA House compares each teammate's numbers with and without the missing player: points, rebounds, assists, threes and minutes. A guard who averages 21 with the star and 27 without him has shown what he does with the extra shots.

Watch the sample size. Three games without a player is a hint; ten is evidence. A team's system also changes: a new coach or a trade can make old with/without numbers stale.

Timing

Injury news moves lines fast. The official report comes out in the afternoon (US time), with updates up to tip-off. The moment a starter is ruled out, his teammates' lines start to move. The value is in the first minutes after the news, and in "questionable" players whose status is still open.

On NBA House

The injury impact page updates with the official report: who is out tonight, and which teammates did better without him, with the number of games behind each figure. Follow a player and you get an alert when a teammate's absence gives him a boost.