Public record

Model track record

Every model pick since 20 Oct 2026, graded against the official box score. Wins and losses, nothing removed. Pushes and players who did not play are not counted.

Model status, week by week

757–416

Record

64.5%

Win rate · 52.4% breaks even

+272.2u

Units at −110

+23.2%

ROI

Units over time

1 unit per pick at −110

By confidence

What the tiers mean

Strong
114–29

79.7%
+74.6u

Solid
247–104

70.4%
+120.5u

Lean
396–283

58.3%
+77.0u

By stat and side

Points
136–47

74.3%
+76.6u

Rebounds
279–161

63.4%
+92.6u

Assists
342–208

62.2%
+102.9u

Over
178–65

73.3%
+96.8u

Under
579–351

62.3%
+175.4u

Is the confidence honest?

The confidence holds up: picks win about as often as the model says.

Model says	Picks	Won
Under 50%	146	45.9%
50–55%	158	50.0%
55–60%	159	67.3%
60–65%	131	58.0%
65–70%	210	71.9%
70–75%	140	72.9%
75–80%	87	81.6%
80% or more	142	73.2%

1,173 graded picks. The chance comes from how far the projection sits from the line, against how much that stat usually moves. Dots on the dashed diagonal mean the confidence is honest; bigger dots have more picks.

On points, the confidence holds up: picks win about as often as the model says.

Model says	Picks	Won
65–70%	48	75.0%
70–75%	42	83.3%
75–80%	20	80.0%
80% or more	61	68.9%

183 graded point picks. The chance comes from how far the projection sits from the line, against how much that stat usually moves. Dots on the dashed diagonal mean the confidence is honest; bigger dots have more picks.

On rebounds, the model is overconfident: its picks win less often than the chance it gives them (by 2.0 points).

Model says	Picks	Won
Under 50%	34	38.2%
50–55%	54	40.7%
55–60%	64	71.9%
60–65%	65	63.1%
65–70%	88	68.2%
70–75%	47	61.7%
75–80%	34	73.5%
80% or more	54	79.6%

440 graded rebound picks. The chance comes from how far the projection sits from the line, against how much that stat usually moves. Dots on the dashed diagonal mean the confidence is honest; bigger dots have more picks.

On assists, the model is cautious: its picks win more often than the chance it gives them (by 2.5 points).

Model says	Picks	Won
Under 50%	112	48.2%
50–55%	103	54.4%
55–60%	93	63.4%
60–65%	57	54.4%
65–70%	74	74.3%
70–75%	51	74.5%
75–80%	33	90.9%
80% or more	27	70.4%

550 graded assist picks. The chance comes from how far the projection sits from the line, against how much that stat usually moves. Dots on the dashed diagonal mean the confidence is honest; bigger dots have more picks.

Points holds upRebounds overconfident by 2.0 ptsAssists cautious by 2.5 pts

By month

Month	W	L	P	Win %	Units
November 2026	256	141	0	64.5%	+91.7
October 2026	501	275	0	64.6%	+180.5

Latest graded picks

Date	Player	Pick	Confidence	Final	Result
Tue 10 Nov	Jaxson Hayes	Under 6.5 rebounds	Lean	2	Win
Tue 10 Nov	Derrick White	Under 4.5 assists	Lean	3	Win
Tue 10 Nov	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Over 5.5 assists	Lean	3	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Jalen Green	Under 2.5 assists	Solid	1	Win
Tue 10 Nov	Kyle Kuzma	Under 2.5 assists	Lean	3	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Devin Booker	Over 5.5 assists	Lean	5	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Mikal Bridges	Under 2.5 assists	Lean	1	Win
Tue 10 Nov	Josh Okogie	Under 1.5 assists	Lean	4	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Oso Ighodaro	Over 2.5 assists	Solid	2	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Kyle Kuzma	Under 11.5 points	Solid	5	Win
Tue 10 Nov	Klay Thompson	Under 1.5 assists	Lean	2	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Bam Adebayo	Under 2.5 assists	Solid	4	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Kris Dunn	Over 4.5 assists	Lean	3	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Sidy Cissoko	Under 1.5 assists	Lean	3	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Under 28.5 points	Lean	30	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Neemias Queta	Over 1.5 assists	Lean	3	Win
Tue 10 Nov	Brayden Burries	Under 12.5 points	Solid	3	Win
Tue 10 Nov	Myles Turner	Under 9.5 points	Solid	3	Win
Tue 10 Nov	Ryan Rollins	Under 13.5 points	Solid	14	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Donovan Clingan	Under 1.5 assists	Lean	3	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Myles Turner	Over 5.5 rebounds	Lean	3	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Klay Thompson	Under 1.5 rebounds	Lean	1	Win
Tue 10 Nov	Ajay Mitchell	Under 3.5 assists	Lean	3	Win
Tue 10 Nov	Ryan Rollins	Under 5.5 assists	Strong	2	Win
Tue 10 Nov	Isaiah Hartenstein	Under 3.5 assists	Lean	5	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Josh Green	Under 1.5 assists	Lean	4	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Precious Achiuwa	Over 1.5 assists	Lean	0	Loss
Tue 10 Nov	Karl-Anthony Towns	Over 3.5 assists	Solid	3	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Luka Doncic	Under 7.5 rebounds	Lean	8	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Yaxel Lendeborg	Over 3.5 assists	Strong	4	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Herbert Jones	Under 9.5 points	Solid	10	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Fred VanVleet	Over 3.5 rebounds	Lean	1	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Caleb Martin	Under 4.5 points	Lean	0	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Coby White	Under 14.5 points	Lean	10	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Nickeil Alexander-Walker	Over 3.5 rebounds	Lean	4	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Ryan Kalkbrenner	Under 6.5 rebounds	Lean	15	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Gui Santos	Over 3.5 rebounds	Solid	7	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Amen Thompson	Under 6.5 rebounds	Lean	9	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Victor Wembanyama	Under 2.5 assists	Lean	3	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Ryan Kalkbrenner	Under 7.5 points	Solid	8	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Kyrie Irving	Over 4.5 assists	Lean	4	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Kyrie Irving	Over 21.5 points	Solid	35	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Duncan Robinson	Over 2.5 rebounds	Lean	3	Win
Mon 9 Nov	John Collins	Over 6.5 rebounds	Lean	10	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Ausar Thompson	Over 3.5 assists	Strong	4	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Nickeil Alexander-Walker	Under 2.5 assists	Lean	4	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	De'Aaron Fox	Over 3.5 rebounds	Strong	9	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Naz Reid	Under 18.5 points	Lean	25	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Jamal Murray	Under 5.5 assists	Lean	2	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Peyton Watson	Over 4.5 rebounds	Lean	2	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Fred VanVleet	Over 5.5 assists	Lean	2	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Kyle Anderson	Under 3.5 rebounds	Strong	2	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Karlo Matkovic	Under 4.5 rebounds	Lean	6	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Herbert Jones	Under 1.5 assists	Lean	1	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Coby White	Under 3.5 assists	Lean	9	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Jalen Johnson	Under 7.5 assists	Lean	4	Win
Mon 9 Nov	Naz Reid	Under 8.5 rebounds	Lean	13	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Kingston Flemings	Over 4.5 assists	Lean	4	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Jaylen Wells	Under 2.5 rebounds	Lean	4	Loss
Mon 9 Nov	Zach Edey	Over 1.5 assists	Solid	1	Loss