The Lakers make the playoffs in 100% of our simulations (a top-six seed in 100%, the play-in in 0%), with 10.8 projected wins and a 7% chance at the title.
| # | Team | W-L | Proj. W | Playoffs | Play-in | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 10-2 | 10.8 | 100% | 0% | 7% |
| 2 |  Spurs | 9-2 | 9.8 | 100% | 0% | 16% |
| 3 |  Timberwolves | 8-3 | 8.7 | 100% | 0% | 12% |
| 4 |  Rockets | 8-3 | 8.6 | 100% | 0% | 6% |
| 5 |  Warriors | 8-3 | 8.4 | 100% | 0% | 7% |
| 6 |  Thunder | 8-3 | 8.4 | 87% | 58% | 2% |
| 7 |  Grizzlies | 7-3 | 7.6 | 85% | 62% | 2% |
| 8 |  Trail Blazers | 7-3 | 7.6 | 78% | 80% | 2% |
| 9 |  Mavericks | 7-4 | 7.3 | 36% | 100% | under 1% |
| 10 |  Nuggets | 5-4 | 5.4 | 13% | 100% | under 1% |
| 11 |  Suns | 4-6 | 4.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 |  Pelicans | 4-7 | 4.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 13 |  Clippers | 2-8 | 2.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 14 |  Jazz | 1-10 | 1.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 15 |  Kings | 1-10 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
The rest of the regular season played out 5,000 times from each team's point differential, with the play-in and the playoffs: chances, not certainties.
Regular season and playoff games from official box scores. Season-long numbers are regular season unless you ask for the playoffs.
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